Wednesday, July 12, 2006
What I naively expect to happen
I've been struggling to find a humorous way to express my opinion about today's Hizbullah outrages, since that is the normal tone of my blogging, but at least for now I've given up. For the moment I'm going to resort to paleo-punditry, weighing in with what I think is going on regardless of whether I'm actually qualified to have even a clue about what is really going to happen. Feel free to tune me out for a day or so until my sense of humor returns, as I hope it eventually will.
The Jerusalem Post reported American reaction to the attacks:
For much more on the situation, check Israellycool, the Muqata, Mere Rhetoric, and Treppenwitz.
If you really, really liked this -- or even really, really hated it -- there's lots more:
The Jerusalem Post reported American reaction to the attacks:
This focus on Syria as well as Iran strikes me as important for a number of reasons:
While pointing to the Hizbullah as the holding direct responsibility for the attack, the US also stressed the role of both Syria and Iran in harboring the terror group. Fredrick Jones, spokesman for the National Security Council, said 'We also hold Syria and Iran, which directly support Hizbullah, responsible for this attack and for the ensuing violence.'
The US has long stressed the need for both Syria and Iran to stop supporting the Hizbullah, which is based in southern Lebanon. Both countries are on the US list of states that sponsor terror and are annually listed as giving shelter and support to the Hizbullah. The US has rejected claims by the Hizbullah and by Lebanese officials that Israel did not complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon due to its presence in the Shabaa farms. A statement issued by the White House said that 'Hizballah's actions are not in the interest of the Lebanese people, whose welfare should not be held hostage to the interests of the Syrian and Iranian regimes.'
- Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Peretz are inexperienced and could be strongly influenced by US signals.
- An alternative to harming the interests of Lebanon's civilian infrastructure is appealing, since Hizbullah is likely to view any Israeli-inflicted problems for the Lebanese people as cause for recruiting rather than weeping.
- The Cedar Revolution that has sort of petered out would be a useful thing to rekindle -- an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Syria's harmful impact on Lebanese life and obvious willingness to inflict war on the Lebanese people could be leveraged against Hizbullah's Syrian sponsors.
- It's hard to believe that, having buzzed Syrian President Assad's palace two weeks ago, Israel would then do nothing when Assad's proxy army enters Israel, kidnaps soldiers and bombards northern Israeli towns.
For much more on the situation, check Israellycool, the Muqata, Mere Rhetoric, and Treppenwitz.
