Wednesday, August 16, 2006

"Arms Embargo on Hizballah" 

According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel's Foreign Ministry is counting on keeping new missiles out of Hizballah's hands on the strength of an arms embargo on, well, somebody:

According to Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev, the two main tasks of the expanded force would be enforcing a "Hizbullah-free zone" in south Lebanon and an international arms embargo on Hizbullah.
What does an arms embargo mean when it is imposed on a group rather than a country? A group that is not in charge of the embargoed ports and points of entry, and which can always deny connection or responsibility for any incoming shipment that tests the embargo?

So let us consider what would happen if Hizballah decides to play along, giving the international community all the happy-time images it so badly needs by accepting this embargo, all the while still playing Arafat-ian games behind the scenes. What exactly is an arms embargo on Hizbullah, and how is it enforced?

Let us say that a shipment of about 500 Katyusha rockets shows up and one or another minister of the Lebanese government shows up certifying it was ordered and paid for by the Lebanese government, perhaps out of charitable donations contributed by the concerned citizens of Iran and Syria.

That is, the embargo-enforcers are told that a shipment of 500 missiles is not bound for Hizballah. They are just for government-authorized reserve defense forces, and will simply be stored in concrete storage bunkers somewhere in the south. That's all.

What will the international community do?

Where will these missiles end up after their time in the storage bunkers?

And how soon?


Elder of Ziyon presents some similar analysis pointing out that this embargo is likely to be enforced not with an iron wall, but wet tissue paper.

If you really, really liked this -- or even really, really hated it -- there's lots more: