Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Well That's a Relief! 

The Jerusalem Post allays my fears:

According to the new estimates, Iran will probably have a nuclear bomb by 2012, but could have the capability as early as 2008 'if all goes well for it,' a high ranking IDF commander told The Jerusalem Post yesterday.

'We no longer think that a secret military track runs independent of the civilian one,' said the officer in an interview at IDF Headquarters in Tel-Aviv. 'If it were then they could acquire weapons in 2007... We have changed our estimation.
Now we have plenty of time to argue about the pros and cons of disengagement and even sneak in a summer vacation too. We can put off worrying about getting turned into a radioactive cloud for at least another 3-7 years.

Or can we:

Michael Ledeen: That tracks with claims I have received in the past few days, saying that the last technical problems have been overcome, and that, in the next month or two, Khamenei will either announce that Iran has the bomb, or one will be detonated to remove any doubt.
Whom do you believe? A "high-ranking IDF commander" surely must know. Yet he or she is an anonymous, single source who's potential underlying agenda (allaying my fears) casts some doubt on the reliability of the new estimation. Or do I trust Michael Ledeen, someone who gets a lot of info but makes his living based on our interest in reading it?

I don't know, what do you think? Should I make plans for next summer or not?
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